--- title: "Specializing in the Next Big Thing: A Few Lingering Thoughts from Lavacon" date: 2012-10-11 description: "$( document ).ready(function() { // Handler for .ready() called. $(" canonical_url: https://idratherbewriting.com/2012/10/11/specializing-in-the-next-big-thing-a-few-lingering-thoughts-from-lavacon/ --- # Specializing in the Next Big Thing: A Few Lingering Thoughts from Lavacon I'm from Tacoma, just 120 miles north of Portland, but I hadn't been to Portland much at all. At least, not that I remember. It turns out downtown Portland is full of hipsters. Portland is young, lively, artistic, and reminds me a bit of Seattle. During one of the breakfasts (by the way, Jack has great food at Lavacon), I sat down at a table and introduced myself to the other attendees. Introducing yourself is what you always do at conferences, and having gotten great sleep the night before, I was full of energy. One person said, “Hi, nice to meet you.” Then she said, “So, what do you specialize in?” The question, innocent and common, took me a little by surprise. I didn't think much of it at first. It should have been easy to answer. Yet I drew a blank and could only mention something about video before shifting the conversation to another topic. I do lean towards more visual communication in the form of screencasts. But this question – what do you specialize in – and my lack of an immediate, easy response echoed in the back of my mind throughout the conference. What *do* I specialize in? Is it really video, or is it something else? ## History of Technology During the conference, several presenters gave a tour through the history of technology, giving the historical background as a preface for questions about change – resisting change, anticipating it, or understanding it, and so on. The “history of technology” theme does get a little overplayed at times. (One person noted that she'd seen a slide of the Gutenberg press three different times in the same day.) I mention the history of technology theme because it happens to tie in well with my question about specialization. On another occasion, I heard [Clark Gilbert](http://deseretdigital.com/content/view/28), a Deseret News media CEO, [explore the history of technology](http://tech.lds.org/blog/496-summary-of-clark-gilberts-keynote-at-the-2012-ldstech-conference) with a slightly different angle. Gilbert wanted to know why some companies overlook disruptive technology and can't see its potential until it's too late — until the new technology overtakes them and puts them out of business. He cited the example of the telephone. At the time the first telephones were invented, telephones functioned poorly. You could hardly hear another person 50 feet away. Companies looked at this new technology and scoffed. The telegraph was far superior, allowing people to communicate hundreds of miles away in a quick, efficient manner. They rejected Alexander Graham Bell's telephone and didn't see much use for it. You know what happens next. Phone technology improves, and improves some more, until it becomes far better than the telegraph. By the time the telegraph companies realized this, it was too late. Bell's telephone dominated the communications market. You find the same story about a lot of new technology. When the computer was first invented, not many people knew what to do with it. How could it possibly be useful? Who might want such a device? Most companies didn't jump on computer technology. The computer cost way too much, did little, and didn't seem to have any immediate commercial or personal applications. Once the technology matured, however, it became the dominant technology. Similar stories abound about other technologies. Look at Netflix. Or Amazon. Or Skype. Or tablets. All seemed to so quiet at first – until they suddenly dominated the market. Gilbert asserted that companies often miss the opportunity to jump on new technology because the new technology isn't fully mature. Because the new technology isn't mature, it doesn't perform at the same level, and so it looks weak. Because there are no immediately observable benefits from adopting the new technology, or even immediate applications of the new technology, companies overlook it and continue with the dominant technology. But technology improves at a near exponential rate, getting faster and richer and more robust with each passing year. At some point, the emerging technology overtakes the dominant technology and disrupts the market. The key to winning in the market, then, is to identify potentially disruptive technologies that aren't yet dominant, that are brewing and percolating and getting stronger and stronger in the background. And then to embrace these technologies early, before they mature and disrupt the market. ## Extending the Same Argument to Careers You could make the same argument about careers as you can with technology. If you can anticipate industry trends before they become trends, you have a strong chance of dominating the industry if you're the first one on scene with a mastery of the needed skills. [Malcolm Gladwell](http://www.gladwell.com/) describes this phenomenon in [Outliers: The Story of Success](https://www.amazon.com/Outliers-Story-Success-Malcolm-Gladwell/dp/0316017922). The trick is to accrue about 10,000 hours in the right skill a few years before the demand for that skill hits its peak. He mentions Bill Gates as an example. Gates developed an early interest in computers – before anyone knew computers would be the next big thing. He had access to a nearby computing facility where he could study and learn how computers worked as well as how to program. When computer technology advanced and matured and became the next big thing, Gates was right there, like a surfer who has waited patiently for a swelling wave to finally crest. And now that the wave crests, he's there to ride it. Timing is key. If you begin to develop the skills too late, you miss out on the right opportunities. The question for any tech comm professional, then, is what technologies are bubbling in the background, waiting to emerge? ## Examples of Successful Surfers A few years ago I [talked to Neil Perlin](https://idratherbewriting.com/2010/05/04/trending-towards-mobile-stc10/) at the [STC Summit](http://summit.stc.org/). He told me he planned to specialize in mobile, because so many trends, he observed, pointed in this direction. Sure enough, for the next few conferences, everything I saw Neil present about had something to do with mobile. He specialized in mobile. Now that smartphones are everywhere, I imagine Neil's skills are relevant as ever.